Story: Balkan Nations Options

[Red Hood]

That doesn't mean that Turkey is allied with the GLA or was conquered by them. The attack on Incirlik Air Base was likely some sort of raid rather than a full-on occupation of Turkey. In any case it wouldn't have lasted long after the US clearing the GLA from the Middle East later.

You have terorist forces stroling around,making there own bases,and taking over/out the biggest AirForce base in Medditerain,so either the GLA had enough power to muscle through or Turkish goverment let them through.Not saying it happend that way,just its only logical choice

[The General]

Altough their economy and military is very weakened, the middle eastern alliance around turkey would still not be something to mess with unless a country doesn't have other open fronts.

This post has been edited by The General: 30 Jan 2014, 14:59

[Red Hood]

I was trying to say that it was weakened miltary and economicly by GLA-USA war on its ground

[MARS]

You have terorist forces stroling around,making there own bases,and taking over/out the biggest AirForce base in Medditerain,so either the GLA had enough power to muscle through or Turkish goverment let them through.Not saying it happend that way,just its only logical choice

Seeing how Incirlik is quite close to both Syria and the Med coast, it's not like the GLA would have to muscle its way through most of Turkey in order to get to it. Our official interpretation is that Turkey was allied to the US (because at that time, NATO still existed in the setting) and the GLA simply mounted one of their heavily armed make-or-break suicide raids on the air base which, realistically, would only take it out of the game for a few weeks or months. All the stuff the GLA did in Europe was reinterpreted as an extended series of raids and violent uprisings sparked off among local sympathisers, not a sustained territorial invasion with clear battlelines.

[Cobretti]

You have terorist forces stroling around,making there own bases,and taking over/out the biggest AirForce base in Medditerain,so either the GLA had enough power to muscle through or Turkish goverment let them through.Not saying it happend that way,just its only logical choice

It's also important to remember that Incirlik is a joint USAF/Turkish air base, so there would have been a lot of Turkish aircraft and personnel present there too. I took it that the GLA managed to infiltrate the country and conduct a major attack. It's also been implied in ROTR that Turkey is the major regional power in the Middle East after the war (as it arguably is today).

[Red Hood]

Seeing how Incirlik is quite close to both Syria and the Med coast, it's not like the GLA would have to muscle its way through most of Turkey in order to get to it. Our official interpretation is that Turkey was allied to the US (because at that time, NATO still existed in the setting) and the GLA simply mounted one of their heavily armed make-or-break suicide raids on the air base which, realistically, would only take it out of the game for a few weeks or months. All the stuff the GLA did in Europe was reinterpreted as an extended series of raids and violent uprisings sparked off among local sympathisers, not a sustained territorial invasion with clear battlelines.

Well if thats how you put it,then it makes sense.thx man

[The General]

I was trying to say that it was weakened miltary and economicly by GLA-USA war on its ground

After ECA isolated itself, Russia and China unwilling to work with them, and USA being weakened and too far away from them, i'd say Turkey's economy is 55-70% weaker compared to what it was before the EU collapsed. That also pulled down the military.
GLA attack(s) didn't help theim either.

This post has been edited by The General: 30 Jan 2014, 23:34

[MARS]

^ The ECA hasn't really isolated itself. Sure, the kicked out every ex-EU country east of Poland and built a literal wall to keep their poor citizens out while their countries went through a major crisis until Russia helped them back up, but that's not to say that they literally refuse all sorts of contact with other countries outside their Alliance. They still have diplomatic meetings and they'd still be engaged in trade, it's just that there's no more EU Turkey could ever join because the ECA doesn't want to stretch itself all the way to the Black Sea and no more NATO that would oblige them to defend each other. The ECA isn't actively trying to be isolationist, it's just that their methods of maintaining their own wealth and stability were quite blunt and controversial, so it's more of a question as to which former EU countries still -want- to have anything to do with them.

[Darky]

So where does this put Turkey? Did Surorov give up on the traditional idea of having ports in warm seas, or is he planning to kill millions of Europeans and a bird with one stone by trying to conquer the entire Europe?

It just doesn't make sense to me that Turkey would have an insignificant part in this when everyone is at stakes with the GLA, with sneaking through Turkey being their best option of reaching Europe. If anything, I would expect Turkey to devolve into an even more bitter isolationist and totalitarian police state with constant surveillance, higher levels of conscription and military training, even less of a budget for social services and an exaggerated military budget, walls and minefields, if only to never let GLA embarrass them again. Even though the Montreux Agreement's clause regarding passage through the straits will persist, the world is really at a different position in RotR, so I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey would close the straits for one side, getting in the war with one side and getting support from the other, also giving them extra protection against the GLA.

And at this point I would like to remind everyone that Turkey has had problems with terrorist organizations for over 50 years now, with one particularly troubling going back about 40 years. A good amount of money is spent for counterterrorism, just imagine what would happen if that organization fused with many others into the GLA, an international terrorist threat funded by parties no one knows about.

[Svea Rike]

When in doubt: fan-fiction. Nobody has covered Turkey yet, right?

[The General]

When in doubt: fan-fiction. Nobody has covered Turkey yet, right?

I think you did, with the middle eastern alliance?

[The General]

^ The ECA hasn't really isolated itself. Sure, the kicked out every ex-EU country east of Poland and built a literal wall to keep their poor citizens out while their countries went through a major crisis until Russia helped them back up, but that's not to say that they literally refuse all sorts of contact with other countries outside their Alliance. They still have diplomatic meetings and they'd still be engaged in trade, it's just that there's no more EU Turkey could ever join because the ECA doesn't want to stretch itself all the way to the Black Sea and no more NATO that would oblige them to defend each other. The ECA isn't actively trying to be isolationist, it's just that their methods of maintaining their own wealth and stability were quite blunt and controversial, so it's more of a question as to which former EU countries still -want- to have anything to do with them.

My bad. I was thinking to write that USA was weakened so they isolated themselfs, while to get to ECA they'd have to go trough unsafe/unstable balkan/middle sea, and if ECA would accept the goods, and do they satisfy their strict standards is a whole seperate problem.

[The General]

So where does this put Turkey? Did Surorov give up on the traditional idea of having ports in warm seas, or is he planning to kill millions of Europeans and a bird with one stone by trying to conquer the entire Europe?

It just doesn't make sense to me that Turkey would have an insignificant part in this when everyone is at stakes with the GLA, with sneaking through Turkey being their best option of reaching Europe. If anything, I would expect Turkey to devolve into an even more bitter isolationist and totalitarian police state with constant surveillance, higher levels of conscription and military training, even less of a budget for social services and an exaggerated military budget, walls and minefields, if only to never let GLA embarrass them again. Even though the Montreux Agreement's clause regarding passage through the straits will persist, the world is really at a different position in RotR, so I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey would close the straits for one side, getting in the war with one side and getting support from the other, also giving them extra protection against the GLA.

And at this point I would like to remind everyone that Turkey has had problems with terrorist organizations for over 50 years now, with one particularly troubling going back about 40 years. A good amount of money is spent for counterterrorism, just imagine what would happen if that organization fused with many others into the GLA, an international terrorist threat funded by parties no one knows about.

I'm not very good when it comes to economy, but Turkey was a very big producer of goods in RoTR too ( as it's based on reality ). But here there are disturbing factors ( mostly GLA ), which would make foregin investors back off from investments in Turkey as it's not secure.
The crissis in america in the 30s was caused by too many goods and no one who wanted to buy them. People lost their jobs, uninployment went up, and the goods spoiled. The standard and budget drasticaly fell, trade went down 50-70% . Investors backed down, and presto: one of the biggest economical crissis in history.
Only in RoTR, no one would be willing to assist Turkey as they assisted america ( because western capitalist states mostly depended on america ). And i don't think Turkey's government has enough resources to do anything that would help their economy.
However, this supports your statement that Turkey is very likely to become a police state, with all this plus the terrorist threat. However, that means Turkey is going to sacrafice everything else to maintain order, which means later their military would become obsolete.

But like i said, this comes from my knowledge of basic economy, which could be totaly wrong.

This post has been edited by The General: 31 Jan 2014, 23:04

[Darky]

I'm not very good when it comes to economy, but Turkey was a very big producer of goods in RoTR too ( as it's based on reality ). But here there are disturbing factors ( mostly GLA ), which would make foregin investors back off from investments in Turkey as it's not secure.
The crissis in america in the 30s was caused by too many goods and no one who wanted to buy them. People lost their jobs, uninployment went up, and the goods spoiled. The standard and budget drasticaly fell, trade went down 50-70% . Investors backed down, and presto: one of the biggest economical crissis in history.
Only in RoTR, no one would be willing to assist Turkey as they assisted america ( because western capitalist states mostly depended on america ). And i don't think Turkey's government has enough resources to do anything that would help their economy.
However, this supports your statement that Turkey is very likely to become a police state, with all this plus the terrorist threat. However, that means Turkey is going to sacrafice everything else to maintain order, which means later their military would become obsolete.

But like i said, this comes from my knowledge of basic economy, which could be totaly wrong.

The problem with your theory is that the Turkish population is mostly nationalistic and the training given to conscripts is nominal at best, conscription is arguably the only reason that Turkey has a strong military force, most technologies are purchased and licensed arms are produced locally but that's it, Turkey, if it is in RotR the way it is now, will still be buying arms from USA and perhaps the ECA, and with the way the Turkish Army gets soldiers, Turkish military power wouldn't decrease. Basically, GLA attacks and whatnot would only affect the population directly, the military strength would be untouched because it's not based on economical investment. If anything, it would only make the nationalism stronger, further justifying harsher conscription terms.

Quick Edit: Foreign investors are currently scared away because of the problem with Syria and the region being fucked up in general so I can't see that changing much.

This post has been edited by DarkyPwnz: 1 Feb 2014, 1:11

[Darky]

--- Accidental Doublepost ---

This post has been edited by DarkyPwnz: 1 Feb 2014, 1:07

[The General]

The problem with your theory is that the Turkish population is mostly nationalistic and the training given to conscripts is nominal at best, conscription is arguably the only reason that Turkey has a strong military force, most technologies are purchased and licensed arms are produced locally but that's it, Turkey, if it is in RotR the way it is now, will still be buying arms from USA and perhaps the ECA, and with the way the Turkish Army gets soldiers, Turkish military power wouldn't decrease. Basically, GLA attacks and whatnot would only affect the population directly, the military strength would be untouched because it's not based on economical investment. If anything, it would only make the nationalism stronger, further justifying harsher conscription terms.

Quick Edit: Foreign investors are currently scared away because of the problem with Syria and the region being fucked up in general so I can't see that changing much.

You are involving too much of reality, Zero Hour started, i think in year 2002. Everything before that is from reality, but everything after 2002. is fiction.
In RoTR:

USA is isolated and weakened, which means they wouldn't gladly share what they have with anyone, especialy if the country is that close to Russia. They decided to help ECA just because if they didn't Russia would spread to all Europe and be a threat to USA too.

In ECA harsh protectionalism is involved. They basicaly don't care much about anyone who are east from Italy and Poland. Also you have to remember that ECA just watched while Republick of Srpska, FYROM and Montenegro integrated into Serbia, while Serbia annexed the rest of Bosnia. That's right at their doorstep, so why would they care about Turkey, who's even farther?

Russia didn't buy anything from Turkey because they have mass domestic production plus products from Balkan Confederation ( Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania ).

China is a mass producer too, so they have everything they need.

GLA near and in Turkey is a constant threat. That would justify Turkey turning into a police state, but their economy would be much, much weaker. And we know that there is no strong military without a strong economy.

[Darky]

You are involving too much of reality, Zero Hour started, i think in year 2002. Everything before that is from reality, but everything after 2002. is fiction.
In RoTR:

USA is isolated and weakened, which means they wouldn't gladly share what they have with anyone, especialy if the country is that close to Russia. They decided to help ECA just because if they didn't Russia would spread to all Europe and be a threat to USA too.

In ECA harsh protectionalism is involved. They basicaly don't care much about anyone who are east from Italy and Poland. Also you have to remember that ECA just watched while Republick of Srpska, FYROM and Montenegro integrated into Serbia, while Serbia annexed the rest of Bosnia. That's right at their doorstep, so why would they care about Turkey, who's even farther?

Russia didn't buy anything from Turkey because they have mass domestic production plus products from Balkan Confederation ( Serbia, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania ).

China is a mass producer too, so they have everything they need.

GLA near and in Turkey is a constant threat. That would justify Turkey turning into a police state, but their economy would be much, much weaker. And we know that there is no strong military without a strong economy.

Please read that post again, I explained why Turkey's military strength isn't about economy at all. I never said they would care about Turkey, I said that they would sell weapons to improve their own economy. Also, anything I have said about Turkey applies to 2002 and before as well. It's not a recent observation.

Your viewpoint is extremely simplistic.

[The General]

Please read that post again, I explained why Turkey's military strength isn't about economy at all. I never said they would care about Turkey, I said that they would sell weapons to improve their own economy. Also, anything I have said about Turkey applies to 2002 and before as well. It's not a recent observation.

Your viewpoint is extremely simplistic.

Let me get this streight, you are saying that ECA or/and USA, would send their military technology to Turkey, despite them being near Russia and their allies? Don't you think that by doing that they would be giving a gift to GLA cells, or even worse, Russia?
But anyway, where would Turkey get the money to buy it?

[sino301]

yes they would, if you have any doubt, look at the RL situation, they are sending funds and weapons to turkey for the syrian conflict no matter what the russians say cause it hurts russia in the long run (or at least they think it does)
so if they are doing it in rl, and rotr is a universe has a basis in rl up to a certain year, it's reasonable to think that they would act accordingly

[The General]

yes they would, if you have any doubt, look at the RL situation, they are sending funds and weapons to turkey for the syrian conflict no matter what the russians say cause it hurts russia in the long run (or at least they think it does)
so if they are doing it in rl, and rotr is a universe has a basis in rl up to a certain year, it's reasonable to think that they would act accordingly

There's no point in doing this anymore, so i'll have to wait for the SWR members to rule on that.


Anyway, i have a picture:


Legend:
Brick red- Russia and Russian allies ( note that Greece is cooperating with Russia altough it's not an official ally ).
Yellow- ECA countries
Blue line in France- Altough we don't know exactly where the front is right now, we know that it's somwhere in France.

[The General]

Can any SWR team member that knows the story about Turky say what's known about them in the cannon?

[MARS]

Known things:
- The attack on Incirlik was an isolated incident; Turkey was not continually invaded or occupied by the GLA, although we can assume that there was some fighting along their eastern border, less so due to the GLA but more so due to the subsequent all-out war that was sparked between the various Middle Eastern countries.
- Prior to the events of 2028, Turkey was heavily involved in US-led NATO operations and it was still associated with - although not in - the European Union.
- After the war, Turkey was pretty much the only country in the region aside from Israel that wasn't completely ruined. It became a leading power among the Middle Eastern Council and is currently engaged in peacekeeping and humanitarian operations in the Middle East.
- The US re-approached Turkey some time after they moved out of their isolation in the early 2030s. Ever since then, the two can be regarded as proper allies again even without the overarching system of NATO. Turkey was also willing to tolerate a CIA black site at their Black Sea coast, which was raided by the GLA at some point in the late 2030s/early 2040.
- If I remember Swedishplayer's fic on Greece properly, it is politically at odds with Turkey due to Greece being under the rule of a fascist party and Turkey having seized the opportunity of the post-EU chaos to annex the entirety of Cyprus. Generally speaking, we can assume that there is a bit of a rivalry going on between Turkey and Greece which may or may not make for a full-blown international crisis at some point.

[The General]

Thanks for the info MARS.
So, is it still fair to assume that Turkey's army isn't so well-equipped?

[MARS]

They are good enough to maintain order in their own country, hold onto Cyprus (at least during the 2030s and 40s) and send peacekeepers to their neighbours, so I wouldn't think of them as a push-over. Sure, their economy took a hit from the failure of the EU, but so did everyone else aside from Russia and the US clearly see some strategic use in Turkey, so I wouldn't assume that they're literally in deep trouble at any point in time.

[The General]

They are good enough to maintain order in their own country, hold onto Cyprus (at least during the 2030s and 40s) and send peacekeepers to their neighbours, so I wouldn't think of them as a push-over. Sure, their economy took a hit from the failure of the EU, but so did everyone else aside from Russia and the US clearly see some strategic use in Turkey, so I wouldn't assume that they're literally in deep trouble at any point in time.

The problem i see here is that Turkey relied on EU too much. I mean, so did other countries, but for example certan Balkan countries turned to Russia in the 30s.
When it comes to economy, the bigger they are the harder they fall, especialy if they rely only on one side which is acting like ECA. Mass production and lack of customers litteraly caused one of the biggest economical crissises in history.

I'm not talking about Turkish military armed with bows and arrows, i think that their military strenght lies in their numbers, not technology.