Global Review, Geopolitics Options

[3rdShockArmy]

The Asian Chessboard: New Dragon Age and the Bear awaken



Relations between Russia and China ever since the end of the Cold War have been nothing short of a strategic partnership. But, despite the excellent relations, the Global War on Terror surfaced serious problems and disagreements between the two countries. The first time that a Chinese Government representative officially "expressed concerns" over any Russian decision happened during the infamous, although shady, "Sulaymaan-Baluyev Affair". The prospects of a possible proliferation of advanced SAMs to various unstable governments and extremist organizations such as GLA, in the middle of a major international GWOT effort (with Russia also being officially part of it), would have completely negated the PLAAF's air operations, which were a crucial part of the campaign. Although Russian government denied involvement and started an official investigation, the once-impeccable relations suffered severe setbacks. The second turning point happened during the 2028 unrests in Russia, which resulted in Nikolai Suvorov's rise to power. With China still having longstanding cooperation agreements with the old regime, it was a serious problem for them to find out that many of those agreements in spheres of military and economic cooperation were either reevaluated, postponed or even simply cancelled, because the new administration found some of the agreements to be against the best interests of the Russian Federation. Such decisions brought the relations between the two countries to a low point at the start of the 2030s, with both Russian Army and PLA restoring their Far Eastern and Manchurian divisions' battle-readiness, respectively. Such measures were not taken ever since the Sino-Soviet Split during late 1950s/early 1960s, which at that moment was still the lowest point of Russian-Chinese relations.
These events coincided with a major military reform in the PLA, which now had a severe problem due to it's overreliance on Russian hi-tech military equipment, which was instrumental to the pace of the reforms.

The military cooperation that started during 1990s launched the PLA decades ahead of it's then capabilities. Advanced 4th generation aircraft were the crown of various agreements. At that time, despite a precarious financial situation, the old Soviet Military Industrial Complex was still very much able to produce the hi-tech systems capable of competing with comparable-era equivalents elsewhere. Two Russian (competing) design bureaus, MiG OKB and Sukhoi OKB were tasked with creating the Soviet, later Russian response to the American ATF program, which gave birth to the YF-22 and YF-23 prototypes, of which the YF-22 was chosen as the winner and later entered service as the F-22 Raptor. Sukhoi's latest projects were off limits, so the PLA specialists had to concede to a, by then, almost cancelled MiG 1.44 prototype. The aircraft was stripped of it's latest and most secretive systems and subsystems and, for a decent sum, was given to the Chinese specialists for a quick evaluation, along with the blueprints of the air frame and the basic digital systems.
The PLAAF soon developed it's own domestic substitutes of the missing Russian systems and the so-called "MiG Interceptor" was born. This rugged aircraft soon proved to be immensely important and very effective during GWOT. Armed with various destructive weapons such as napalm, or in case of General Tao, even tactical nuclear missiles, the Chinese MiG was the scourge of the GLA, earning various nicknames among the GLA insurgents, such as "The Red Devil" or "The Screaming Witch", with the second being in reference to the "screaming" of the Chinese WS-10 engines which powered the aircraft. After 2037 Budapest Agreement, China decommissioned all of it's neutron weapons and reduced it's massive stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons. After the tactical "MiG Bomber" variant entered service, the "MiG Interceptor" was stripped of all highly destructive weapons, so the Chengdu corporation developed the new flak missiles for it, which, although with limited firepower, proved effective on the battlefield, especially against other aircraft.
The systems used by the "MiG Interceptor" were a much improved Chinese version of most basic Russian systems from the late 1980s/early 90s.

As much luck the PLAAF had by having access to top-notch Russian technology, the other PLA branches were not so lucky. The planned massive modernization programme for the Chinese Ground Forces was seriously impaired after relations with Russia soared in the 2030s. The Chinese experts predicted it would take years to create Chinese equivalents for the missing Russian military products. PRC decided to procure Western military hardware, but despite it's good relations with European Union and United States, the Western countries expressed concerns over the Chinese government's inability to give strong guarantees that the equipment in question would not be subject to copyright violations. This, coupled with the creation of the ECA from the ashes of the troubled EU and the enactment of the isolationist policies in the US, postponed the modernization programme for decades to come. China then opted for a more pragmatic programme which revolved around modernizing massive amounts of older military hardware. The most notable exception to this rule was the sector of electronic warfare industry which created some of the most effective offensive ECM weapons in the world. Also, Chinese hackers were among the best in the world.
The creation of GAPA and the end of Eurasian Unity League soon affected the Chinese Military even more. The withdrawal from Europe and the cementing of the Chinese grip in East Asia limited China's global influence, but it did secure it's regional supremacy, with only Japan and now-united Korea not being part of GAPA. The violent annexation of Taiwan was crucial for the Chinese image of a superpower, although the Modern Way programme gave Taiwan a certain degree of autonomy.

China's relatively good relations with the US prevented any serious conflicts with Japan, at least for the time being and the importance of economic cooperation with Korea gave Eastern Asia a period of peace and stability after the last Korean War was over.

Relations with Russia, a resurgent superpower, however, spiraled downwards as years passed. The reemergence of CSTO, as a strong military alliance which incorporated all former Soviet Central Asia, forced China to change it's strategy. Russian troops reentered Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Aldastan, bringing stability to the region and destroying the very last remnants of GLA presence. CSTO also soon started a covert support for the Uyghur population in Chinese autonomous province of Xinjiang. For the first time since the Cold War, China's leadership felt that the country was partially surrounded. Russia's return to Central Asia was seen as a major setback for PRC, considering how many troops were committed for the liberation of the region from GLA reign. However, the use of highly destructive weapons by the PLA alienated it from the Central Asian peoples and many remembered the times of peace and stability during Soviet Era. This, coupled with American bombing runs, made Russia the most likely choice by most of Central Asians. Although there were pro-Chinese countries in the region, namely Pakistan, which was a Bangalore Pact member-state, they had a limited influence compared to other great powers. India established good relations with almost everyone, although it still held it's reservations towards China and GAPA as a whole. Russian intelligence agencies had a well-connected cooperation with various other national and non-governmental intelligence organizations. State security in India had a particularly fruitful cooperation with Russian FSB, SVR and GRU for decades, while there were elements in state securities of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar who also wanted to break free from GAPA, and saw Russia as the only force in Asia capable of limiting China's power.

The Chinese Ministry of State Security made great efforts to counter these organizations and groups and had it not established massive networks of spies and hackers, that task would have been exceedingly difficult, if possible at all.

During 2040s the situation escalated even further, after the ECA fueled the "African Resource Rush" with it's 2037 Operation Nemesis. Other powers soon followed suit and both Russia and China targeted eastern and northeastern Africa respectively.

The creation of PPA and the disastrous Sino-American attack on Russian-held Kurmuk ended in a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians, weakening their already precarious position amidst resurgent GLA attacks in Central Africa. This brought the superpowers to a brink of a nuclear war. Troops were mobilized and massed along the borders, respectively, from the Sea of Japan, Amur, along now Chinese-ruled Mongolia, Central Asia, all the way to the gates of Himalayas.

After the Russo-European War erupted, hardliners in PLA's Headquarters were very much in favour of an all-out invasion of Russia's Far East, while agents of the Ministry of State Security operating in Vladivostok, Habarovsk and elsewhere along the Amur river were prepared to incite well-coordinated revolts among the Chinese immigrants.

As the Russian forces committed more troops to the European theatre, Chinese strategists felt increasingly secure that a massive Chinese attack would be very successful. At the same time, Russia had it's own plans in case of a Chinese attack and it mostly revolved around a defensive strategy in the Far Eastern District, while CSTO forces in Central Asia would prepare for an invasion of Xinjiang, aided by the rebellious Uyghurs. All these plans were subject to revisions as the situation in the field changed. Still, war was a very possible outcome, if not the most probable.

This post has been edited by 3rdShockArmy: 10 May 2016, 22:22

[3rdShockArmy]

Thanks, bro!
I'll probably do Caucasus next, but I'm still working on Air war in Europe. It's moving slow, but I hope I'll finish it soon.