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My thoughts on the Middle East war
Svea Rike
post 12 Mar 2015, 15:11
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THE GREAT MIDDLE EASTERN WAR
THE WAR TO END ALL WARS


The Middle East has always been a hotbed for conflict. Be it internal, external, brush wars, rebellions, it seems this region can never catch a break. It might be because it was the effective birthplace of civilization with the Sumer people, or for it being wedged between the east and west, or because of the massive oil assets superpowers want for themselves. Nonetheless, the Middle East has been a hotly contested region ever since the Crusades, and it was about to reach its twilight during the Global War on Terror.

In the early years of the 21st century, the United States of America and its coalition of western allies invaded the dictatorship of Iraq in Operation ‘Iraqi Freedom’. The invasion was conducted from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a longtime ally of the United States, and in less than a year saw the President Saddam Hussein and his reign of terror finished. In its place was installed a pro-American regime criticized by many to be just as totalitarian as Saddam’s government, and the repercussions are still felt. Ten years after the invasion, the United States withdrew her forces, leaving the Middle East for itself. What started as a weak regime eventually collapsed in on itself as militias, rebel groups and terrorists put pressure on it, and soon the region became contested once again. Most put the blame on the United States, and they aren’t entirely wrong, but the truth is embedded much deeper than that.

In 2004, one year post-invasion, a Saudi cleric with ties to Al Qaeda by the name Abdul bin Yusuuf held a massive demonstration in downtown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, protesting the “American War of Terror”. Yusuuf had a silver tongue, and managed to get quite a large follower base, which became his Brotherhood of the White Falcon. Their operations mostly consisted of peaceful protests, but Yusuuf became restless. When the US withdrew, he saw what happened to the once-stable nation, and demanded the west to answer for their actions. He saw his own country Saudi Arabia supporting the United States, believing it to have become a capitalist puppet state, and he realized his peaceful approach had not worked the slightest. So he sought more drastic measures.

In 2013, the Brotherhood of the White Falcon contacted several militia organizations in south-central Iraq and the contested regions to the west, and united them under a single banner. The Brotherhood spread chaos around the country, and Yusuuf planned to overthrow the government and return it to what it once was. The Saudi Arabian General Intelligence Presidency (GIP) had kept eyes on Yusuuf and the White Falcon since its foundation, waiting for a single reason to take him out. However, they did not expect him to form a full-on terrorist organization in the Middle East. The Brotherhood spread, gaining more and more followers as the months passed and spilled over into Syria, Kurdistan, Lebanon and Jordan. Even Yusuuf thought it was getting out of hand, but he didn’t complain. Saudi Arabia expressed deep concerns over these developments, and contacted its allies in Syria, Jordan and what remains of Iraq, as well as the other countries of the Arabian Peninsula. They also tried to gain support from the west, including the United States, Turkey, Egypt and more, but to negative response.

Saudi Arabia declared war on the Brotherhood of the White Falcon in 2014. Military forces moved into Iraq and began subjugating White Falcon militants. They were noticeably brutal in their methods; militants were recorded being gunned down even as they were trying to surrender, and several reporters noted many war crimes conducted in cities. Saudi Arabia claimed that the terrorist organization’s actions are justification enough for these methods. Yusuuf managed to evade his opponents, and fled to Iran, where he stayed in exile for several months, planning his next step. The subjugation of White Falcon continued well into 2016, when the pro-American regime was fully rebuilt.

The next year, the Global Liberation Army was founded in Kazakhstan. Yusuuf saw them as a potential ally, and sought their help, but their efforts weren’t concentrated on the Middle East initially. Yusuuf went to Dubai, the United Aram Emirates, and went on a three-day rampage in the city using an up-armored bus, nicknamed the “battle bus”. In response, Saudi Arabia deployed a task force to hunt them down, and this time they weren’t letting go. Yusuuf went underground yet again, but now he was contacted by one Anwar Sulaymaan, an Iraqi insurgent that fought with White Falcon with ties to the GLA. They met a year later in 2018, in the Hindu Kush Mountains of Afghanistan, and discussed an alliance – or rather, a pledge of allegiance considering the White Falcon was barely hanging on.

While Yusuuf went to Kazakhstan to join the GLA, Anwar Sulaymaan remained in the Middle East, preparing for the upcoming GLA liberation of the region. The Saudi Arabia-led coalition against terrorism had received negative press from longtime rival Iran, who believed the coalition was directed towards them instead of terrorists. Notably, Israel was also against the coalition, believing it would negatively impact relations between Middle Eastern and other nations, but most speculate the real reason is the same as Iran’s. Anyhow, the coalition lived on and eventually named MSOL, Mid-east Security Operations League. The final version consisted of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, the UAE and Yemen. Western backers consisted of the majority of NATO, Egypt and Brazil, while notable opponents included Iran, Israel and Russia.

Soon, the Global War on Terror started, but its repercussions were largely unfelt in the Middle East. MSOL was more concerned over Iran and Russia than some outmatched terrorist organization half a continent away, but it would soon find its way there. Anwar Sulaymaan had been growing dissent in the population of Iraq for some time, still weary after the White Falcon insurgency. Iraq had not been much better off since the US withdrawal, and the country seemed like it was a worse place than before Saddam’s fall. Sulaymaan was angry at the west for ruining his nation over and over, unsurprisingly passing off the fact that Yusuuf had been ravaging the nation just several years prior. The dissidence grew for several years, until 2022, when Sulaymaan had amassed an army. During this time, MSOL was too busy containing Iran’s continued grasp for control over the Middle East, gaining quite some ground in Kurdistan and Syria, allowing Sulaymaan to do what he pleased right there in the middle. It was time for drastic changes.

With the force of a hurricane, Sulaymaan and his army of thieves and whores swooped down over Baghdad and overthrew the puppet regime in less than a day, and announcing their victory through all communications sources in Iraq. It was a blaze of chaos, as anarchy took over and made MSOL seem ineffective. Soon, GIP realized that Sulaymaan was a prominent member of the GLA, and sought help from more powerful allies. The United States agreed to intervene after several weeks of tiresome negotiations, and launched Operation ‘Final Justice’ in 2023. American forces landed in Iraq, driving northward like an elephant stampede. The fight was brutal, but soon Sulaymaan fled the country and peace was restored… not.

Sulaymaan entered Iran, where he reunited with Yusuuf. Together, with assistance from infiltration expert Prince Kassad and demolitions fanatic Rodall Juhziz, they destroyed the presidential home in Tehran, right as the GLA armies entered from the north, plunging the country into civil war. Hardline Iranian generals sided with the terrorists, and in response the United States invaded. MSOL did not, since their agreement with the US was Iraq only. They were caught in a three-way power struggle between the GLA, Iranian loyalists and American forces, who decided to kill two birds with one stone by subduing both the GLA and Iran. Soon, like so many things, it spiraled out of control.

Mohmar Deathstrike captured the Baikonur cosmodrome, partly dismantled but still fit for one-time use. His plan was ingenious; in order to instill chaos in the Middle East, thereby creating a distraction for his true motives, he poised the missile to launch towards Tel Aviv, Israel, positively reigniting the decades-old feud between Israelis and Palestinians, since Israel would most certainly blame them. The massive ICBM bypassed the infamous Iron Dome defense system and contacted the city, killing hundreds of thousands of people in seconds, and thousands more in the coming weeks. Now, the world was officially ablaze.

Israel was dumbstruck, not able to realize what had just happened. But, as Mohmar had predicted, they blamed their longtime their longtime neighboring enemies, and invaded Palestine. The United States urged them not to, but they weren’t listening, focused on ending this aged-old feud there and then. MSOL was split; half wanted to condemn Israel for breaking their truce, while the other half sought to ignore it considering they had bigger problems on the horizon. But then things went from bad to worse.

In 2025, an Iranian fighter-bomber pilot mistook a Saudi Arabian destroyer for an American one, and sunk it. Without question, Saudi Arabia and by extension MSOL declared war on Iran and the GLA, and now officially helped the United States full-time in the war. They sent a special forces detachment to rescue downed American pilots in Yemen, and assisted a carrier battle group with raiding a GLA training facility in Somalia. MSOL forces also pushed into Iran, assisting the American military there. Soon however the civil war died down and the US moved further north to Kazakhstan to stop the GLA once and for all, but things weren’t over. American forces had indeed quelled their opponents in Iran, so MSOL turned to Israel. They still weren’t sure whether to intervene or not, but held Israel in the tight rope either way.

Things continued for several more months until 2027, when the United States suddenly decided to pull out of the war due to their failing economy and public opinion back home – exactly the thing American officials feared would happen if they returned to the Middle East. Without anyone to keep them in check, Iran reconsolidated and took revenge on MSOL: Before the Saudi Arabian-led coalition could secure the country again, an Iranian general decided that total defeat was better than an enemy’s victory, and launched Iran’s small-yet-powerful nuclear arsenal toward Saudi Arabia. They targeted desalination facilities near the Persian Gulf, which brought clean water to the entire peninsula, destroying them. Within just a few days the lack of water brought the entire region to chaos, and in the following years what would be known as the Great Middle Eastern War began.

The Great Middle Eastern War wasn’t technically a single war in its own right; it’s just a name used to describe all the various civil wars, brushfire conflicts and the one war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The brunt of the conflict took place in the first five years, 2027-2032. Almost immediately, Saudi Arabia was split between five factions vying for control: The government, a group of anti-monarchy military defectors, remnants of the Global Liberation Army and two Islamist extremist organizations. At the same time the government had to fight an alliance of Iran and Syria, who had moved into Iraq. Israel decided to stay out of this conflict and secured its own borders, fortifying the Holy Land and isolating themselves.

In the first year, Saudi Arabian forces fought Iranian and Syrian forces in Iraq, known as the Battle of Mesopotamia. This conflict was responsible for 51% of total casualties in the entire war, and that really says something. The majority of what remained of Iraq’s infrastructure was either damaged or destroyed, and a large, unknown number of civilians (speculated to be in the millions) were displaced, wounded or killed. Iraq’s government was basically non-existent, and this tug-of-war remained through the entire war but the first year saw the biggest battles. Third Modern Battle of Baghdad along was responsible for hundreds of thousands of military casualties.

The nuclear weapons deployed in the first year were the third time nukes had been used in warfare, but there was plenty of other NBC weapons used. Both Iran and Syria freely deployed biological weapons such as nerve gas and anthrax in the war, which killed a large amount of hostile forces and civilians. To meet these casualties, Saudi Arabia forced citizens living in the areas they controlled to fight as auxiliary forces, which only served to prolong the conflict. Now, Saudi Arabia wasn’t the only country plagued by civil conflict; Yemen was effectively split between pro-Saudi and pro-Iranian forces, which lasted the entire war, and Iran started to feel dissidents – again. Kurdish rebel forces also fought all sides of the war, making the conflict a four-way battle between MSOL, Iran and Syria, various terrorist movements and the Kurds.

By 2033, most of the fighting had died down. Syria dropped out of the war due to high number of casualties, the civil war in Yemen hit a stand-still and the other MSOL countries just didn’t have enough strength to continue fighting. But, Saudi Arabia and Iran weren’t done. The anti-monarchy military forces had gained the upper hand, and captured their country’s nuclear arsenal. Their own nuclear arsenal was launched towards Iran. This time they targeted major military bases, but also erased smaller towns and cities off the map. Now Iran descended into a second civil war less than ten years after their first one ended, but this time it was between the government proper and a large group of militias that allied themselves with the Kurds and MSOL to put an end to the fighting.

This civil war lasted for ten whole years into 2043, but Saudi Arabia never intervened. The government and anti-monarchy forces had reached an agreement, and the king willfully stepped down. Ever since the civil war broke out, a military contingent from Jordan, Oman and Saudi Arabia had protected the holy city Mecca from destruction, and the new government decided to cede the city and surrounding region as a free protectorate. The new Saudi Arabia was renamed the Republic of Najd, as that was the only territory they still controlled. In the meantime, Yemen split into East Yemen and West Yemen, and Iraq had seen the creation of two new countries; Babylon and Kurdistan. Their borders aren’t set in stone and disputes still occur. The civil war in Iran started dying down, and MSOL finally took to action and put the final blow in the coffin for Iran. The new country transformed into the Republic of Persia, and their one goal was to end the war. So they started negotiating.

Turkey, who had remained neutral in the entire morbid affair, was the mediator in the Damascus Peace Accords. Najd and its former Saudi Arabian countries still held a red eye towards Persia, and they both had to pay off their debts somehow. Turkey proposed the creation of a multinational peacekeeping and economic alliance to bring stability back to the Middle East, and with no better option everyone agreed. The Middle Eastern Council was born, and it would rebuild the region. Of course, things weren’t pretty: A large portion of the Middle Eastern population had either died or fled the continent, but the ones left stayed strong. Immediately, plans were started to create a new, better Middle East. Sure, it was still widespread poverty, famine, destruction and chaos, but at least they weren’t fighting anymore. Several decades later, things started to look up for the progenitors of civilization.

*****
Just a little backstory information on Saudi Arabia and by extension the Middle East that I hope will be approved canon, or at least after some edits it will...

EDIT: The entire story has now been revamped and I hope it is a major improvement.

This post has been edited by Svea Rike: 19 Mar 2015, 13:34


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piratep2r
post 17 Mar 2015, 17:47
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Hey Svea, running fast, so pardon my typos and stream of thought writing. As usual, you write very well. Remember, all my opinions are just opinions, so disregard what you don't like.

QUOTE
Despite hesitation, the military complied. The Middle East became split in two, sometimes three, alliances: Those that assist Saudi Arabia, mostly nations on the Arabian Peninsula and Jordan; those that assist Iran, mainly Afghanistan and the majority of Iraq, and Israel, who was on her own but isolated strongly enough. For two years, fighting continued in Iraq with a reported five million military casualties, and a whopping fifteen million civilian. The use of NBC weapons were brought in, killing countless more.


Not 100% sure on this one, but the numbers seem a bit high. The Iran-Iraq war (8 years long) according to my usual source wikipedia, had around 300K - 900K military casualties (the "neutral" estimates, rather than those from the combatants themselves) and what looks like ~300K civilian casualties. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

As an additional reference, some WWII numbers:

Germany: 4 - 5M military dead, 1.5M - 3.5M civilian dead, including disease.
US: 0.4M military, "very few" (comparatively) civilian
British: 0.4M military, 67K civilian
French: 0.2M military, 0.35M civilian
Japan: 2.2M military, 0.5M civilian

*note - I am aware the USSR's casualties dwarf everyone else's.

Note, that you should be the judge here, I am not a military historian, but your casualty figures seem pretty apocalyptic to me. Maybe it was just a time of terrible horror, but I thought I'd share this perspective.

QUOTE
Iraq saw the brunt of the war, responsible for 51% of total casualties.


might want to clarify here. "51%" implies Iraq's military took 2.5M casualties. Which, um, is a lot for a military that was only 800K during Hussein's time, when it was either the 4th largest or 6th largest military in the world.

QUOTE
They fielded over 20 million civilian militia, who bled more than the regular military forces on behalf of the government junta. Eventually, a large amount of civil combatants defected and joined the Kurdish resistance fighters, forming the nation of Kurdistan many years later.


Per wiki, the reserves during Hussein's time were 500K, so this is a huge militia. Frankly, beyond huge, given that supplying an army often takes many times the manpower you are actually fielding. Just thinking out loud...

QUOTE
In late 2031, Iran launched an invasion into the United Arab Emirates. Instead of occupying the country, they opted to ruin Dubai, spreading fear and chaos across the peninsula. The UAE possessed one of the largest desalination facilities on the peninsula, providing clean water for everyone. It was destroyed, causing a widespread humanitarian disaster. King Raman III felt the pressure, and eventually ordered Saudi Arabia’s relatively new nuclear arsenal deployed. It first hit targets on the coast, then further inland, then cities, and Iran retaliated in full effect. Nuclear weapons were tossed left and right, and while most of them didn’t destroy any major population centers the casualties were still enormous. Over fifteen million dead in a single year of fighting, and fifteen more the next. The numbers would not shrink.


I am not saying that you are wrong, but I hope you recognize the scale of what you are proposing - something like 50M casualties in the middle east alone in what, 7 years? WW2 killed 60M people total (wikipedia). Also, with nuclear and biological weapons, plus the chaos caused by the amount of disruption this would cause, would mean many more casualties in the following years due to famine, disease, and break down in public health, transportation, and economic systems. I would not be surprised if the numbers doubled or tripled. So maybe 50M - 150M casualties for the middle east alone? For an area with a population of ~205M people (2010, wikipedia), this is not a war, it is the end of the world.

QUOTE
The population had been reduced 40% in less than fifteen years time, all because two quarreling nations couldn't settle their differences.


Ahh, I see you did some calculations yourself. Just remember, WW2 killed ~3% of the world's population (wikipedia).

QUOTE
In the end, it turned out well however, as the new nations focused on the future instead of the past, letting go of past grudges and preparing for what is to come.


Just my opinion, but referring to the conclusion of an apocalyptic conflict that killed 2 out of ever 5 men, women, and children (your 40% casualty number) and probably maimed, injured, or afflicted literally everyone else in the region as "it turned out well" sounds a little off. To put it lightly.

-P
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Pepo
post 17 Mar 2015, 18:42
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As pirate has said, a 40% of the population death is excessive. The biggest lost of lives relative to the size of the country was Paraguay in the south american war , with a percentage of 60%casualties( that includes wounded and death) and that is from the biggest estimates. I would tone down the deaths to a 15%-20% if you want it to be brutal and destructive. However such a high number will make recuperation post war almost impossible, as middle east countries don't have a big industry or economy outside oil. IMO I would reduced the deaths to a 13% even considering nuclear weapons being used. People still have children, and if the war lasted 15 years it would not have been a highly active war. It would be like Afghanistan on a larger scale( from the soviet invasion to today, there has been around 3 million death in Afghanistan, just for comparasion)

Also the number of Iran soldiers is ridiculous high. Iran can't support an army of 20 million soldiers at a time, not even five millions. I think that 1-2 millions at any time is more reasonable, being reinforce as the war continue
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MARS
post 17 Mar 2015, 19:07
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As a story, this does work all right, although I would modify two aspects: First, the initial 'connection' you made with present day events, because those only open up inconsistencies and are best avoided the closer you write a story to present day. Second, the casualty figures. I do imagine, even canon-wise, that this should be a major humanitarian disaster, easily -the- disaster of the century, given the fanaticism of the hostilities, the use of WMDs and the destruction of vital life-supporting infrastructure in a region that barely has any water. However, giving exact numbers and percentages is very difficult, as it easily blows things out of scale and opens up more possible plotholes, so I would suggest changing these to grave, but ambiguous descriptions, both in regards to military strength and casualties.
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Svea Rike
post 17 Mar 2015, 20:21
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QUOTE (piratep2r @ 17 Mar 2015, 17:47) *
Hey Svea, running fast, so pardon my typos and stream of thought writing. As usual, you write very well. Remember, all my opinions are just opinions, so disregard what you don't like.

Not 100% sure on this one, but the numbers seem a bit high. The Iran-Iraq war (8 years long) according to my usual source wikipedia, had around 300K - 900K military casualties (the "neutral" estimates, rather than those from the combatants themselves) and what looks like ~300K civilian casualties. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

As an additional reference, some WWII numbers:

Germany: 4 - 5M military dead, 1.5M - 3.5M civilian dead, including disease.
US: 0.4M military, "very few" (comparatively) civilian
British: 0.4M military, 67K civilian
French: 0.2M military, 0.35M civilian
Japan: 2.2M military, 0.5M civilian

*note - I am aware the USSR's casualties dwarf everyone else's.

Note, that you should be the judge here, I am not a military historian, but your casualty figures seem pretty apocalyptic to me. Maybe it was just a time of terrible horror, but I thought I'd share this perspective.

might want to clarify here. "51%" implies Iraq's military took 2.5M casualties. Which, um, is a lot for a military that was only 800K during Hussein's time, when it was either the 4th largest or 6th largest military in the world.

Per wiki, the reserves during Hussein's time were 500K, so this is a huge militia. Frankly, beyond huge, given that supplying an army often takes many times the manpower you are actually fielding. Just thinking out loud...

I am not saying that you are wrong, but I hope you recognize the scale of what you are proposing - something like 50M casualties in the middle east alone in what, 7 years? WW2 killed 60M people total (wikipedia). Also, with nuclear and biological weapons, plus the chaos caused by the amount of disruption this would cause, would mean many more casualties in the following years due to famine, disease, and break down in public health, transportation, and economic systems. I would not be surprised if the numbers doubled or tripled. So maybe 50M - 150M casualties for the middle east alone? For an area with a population of ~205M people (2010, wikipedia), this is not a war, it is the end of the world.

Ahh, I see you did some calculations yourself. Just remember, WW2 killed ~3% of the world's population (wikipedia).

Just my opinion, but referring to the conclusion of an apocalyptic conflict that killed 2 out of ever 5 men, women, and children (your 40% casualty number) and probably maimed, injured, or afflicted literally everyone else in the region as "it turned out well" sounds a little off. To put it lightly.

-P


QUOTE (Pepo @ 17 Mar 2015, 18:42) *
As pirate has said, a 40% of the population death is excessive. The biggest lost of lives relative to the size of the country was Paraguay in the south american war , with a percentage of 60%casualties( that includes wounded and death) and that is from the biggest estimates. I would tone down the deaths to a 15%-20% if you want it to be brutal and destructive. However such a high number will make recuperation post war almost impossible, as middle east countries don't have a big industry or economy outside oil. IMO I would reduced the deaths to a 13% even considering nuclear weapons being used. People still have children, and if the war lasted 15 years it would not have been a highly active war. It would be like Afghanistan on a larger scale( from the soviet invasion to today, there has been around 3 million death in Afghanistan, just for comparasion)

Also the number of Iran soldiers is ridiculous high. Iran can't support an army of 20 million soldiers at a time, not even five millions. I think that 1-2 millions at any time is more reasonable, being reinforce as the war continue


QUOTE (MARS @ 17 Mar 2015, 19:07) *
As a story, this does work all right, although I would modify two aspects: First, the initial 'connection' you made with present day events, because those only open up inconsistencies and are best avoided the closer you write a story to present day. Second, the casualty figures. I do imagine, even canon-wise, that this should be a major humanitarian disaster, easily -the- disaster of the century, given the fanaticism of the hostilities, the use of WMDs and the destruction of vital life-supporting infrastructure in a region that barely has any water. However, giving exact numbers and percentages is very difficult, as it easily blows things out of scale and opens up more possible plotholes, so I would suggest changing these to grave, but ambiguous descriptions, both in regards to military strength and casualties.


Thank you for all your constructive criticism.

For the casualty numbers, it was based on older lore where MARS mentioned that the numbers really were up in the 40 million range as civilian combatants were pushed into service, but looking back at it it does seem a bit ridiculous. I will do my best to reduce those figures. Also when I say Iraq I mean Iraq the general area, not the country itself, i.e. both sides suffered the most casualties while vying for control of Iraq. But, as MARS said, the war did use NBC weapons and as such the casualties would be high. Still in the millions at least. I also imagine that there would be a mass migration either north to Russia, east to China or west to Africa, considering the ECA doesn't take too kindly to immigrants.

And about the connection with present-day events, other fan-fic authors had already done that which is why I think there should be a clear year from which real life evens never happened in Rise of the Reds. Is 2013 a good year? 2014 was the nuclear disaster in China but before that, not many major events. I'll see to it that this will be heavily edited.


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Svea Rike
post 19 Mar 2015, 13:39
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Now I have done a major overhaul of the story and I do believe it is better. I omitted casualty numbers and didn't draw in too many real life connections in the beginning, and I also removed the images because they just didn't fit. Hope it works.


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