Military talks, 2010 + Options

[Raven]

lol thats one killer chick in the pic before the last . Is this going to be permanent solution or just a containment operation before the WC?

[Overdose]

I think its permanent. The Militia is very sneaky though. They have like 1000 hectars of mountain and forest to disappear into.

[Raven]

Unless you go out in full force it won't be easy to route them out. From what I have seen and heard, they have lot of support from the people inside the favela's as well. So it'll make the job even more harder.

[Overdose]

Not really except those that want it to remain a lawless place.

In other news:

After days of anticipation and unheeded warnings from the Obama administration, the huge and controversial data dump from whistle-blower website WikiLeaks is being published and broadcast.
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Wikileaks release: in Russia, fear of damage to future US relations
Will WikiLeaks nudge US toward tougher laws to guard secrets?

As reported by the New York Times (which, along with the British newspaper the Guardian and the German news magazine Der Spiegel, began revealing the data Sunday afternoon), the cache of a quarter-million confidential American diplomatic cables “provides an unprecedented look at backroom bargaining by embassies around the world, brutally candid views of foreign leaders and frank assessments of nuclear and terrorist threats.”

The Guardian reports the leaked information as including: Arab leaders privately urging an air strike on Iran, US officials being instructed to spy on the United Nation's leadership, alleged links between the Russian government and organized crime, “devastating criticism” of British military operations in Afghanistan, and claims of “inappropriate behavior” by a member of the British royal family.

“The cables name countries involved in financing terror groups, and describe a near ‘environmental disaster’ last year over a rogue shipment of enriched uranium,” reports the Guardian. “They disclose technical details of secret US-Russian nuclear missile negotiations in Geneva, and include a profile of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, who they say is accompanied everywhere by a ‘voluptuous blonde’ Ukrainian nurse.”

According to the New York Times, the cables include: “A dangerous standoff with Pakistan over nuclear fuel … gaming out an eventual collapse of North Korea … bargaining to empty the Guantánamo Bay prison … suspicions of corruption in the Afghan government … and a global computer hacking effort” directed by the Chinese Politburo.
The “intriguing alliance” between Putin and Berlusconi

The New York Times reports leaked diplomatic message traffic indicating that “Saudi donors remain the chief financiers of Sunni militant groups like Al Qaeda,” “clashes with Europe over human rights,” and an “intriguing alliance” between Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin and Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi involving “lavish gifts,” lucrative energy contracts and a “shadowy” Russian-speaking Italian go-between.

As the information was being released, the White House called the publication of confidential diplomatic cables "reckless and dangerous,” warning that it could "deeply impact" US interests as well as those of allies and friends.

"To be clear, such disclosures put at risk our diplomats, intelligence professionals, and people around the world who come to the United States for assistance in promoting democracy and open government," presidential press secretary Robert Gibbs said Sunday. "These documents also may include named individuals who in many cases live and work under oppressive regimes and who are trying to create more open and free societies."

"By releasing stolen and classified documents, WikiLeaks has put at risk not only the cause of human rights but also the lives and work of these individuals," Gibbs said. "We condemn in the strongest terms the unauthorized disclosure of classified documents and sensitive national security information."
Secretary Clinton tried to soften the blow

Late last week, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to soften the potentially-embarrassing impact of the leaks by contacting government officials in China, Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Britain, France, and Afghanistan. Canada, Denmark, Norway, and Poland were also warned.

In a letter to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange Saturday, State Department legal adviser Harold Koh said the publication of secret diplomatic cables would "place at risk the lives of countless innocent individuals," ''place at risk on-going military operations," and "place at risk on-going cooperation between countries."

US officials have known for some time that WikiLeaks held the diplomatic cables. No one has been charged with passing them to the website, but suspicion focuses on US Army Pfc. Bradley Manning, an intelligence analyst arrested in June and charged regarding an earlier leak of some 400,000 documents related to the war in Iraq.

Most of the current batch of leaked diplomatic cables go back to 2007, including message traffic from both the Obama and Bush administrations.

Controversial website WikiLeaks just tweeted that it”s under a “mass distributed denial of service attack” also known as DDoS attacks. This could have been because of the early leak of secret embassy cables through twitter.

The attackers are yet unknown. Signs of a website being attacked are the website not loading at all or loading very slowly. Several sources suggest the website is indeed being attacked but no confirmed report has yet surfaced. The website was attacked a few hours before the release of new secret U.S. documents (Which are now live). These documents contain have secret cables sent by the US State Department.

[Raven]

I managed to access the site this morning. Its very interesting and at the same time very embarrassing for most governments.

[Сергеј Иванович]

Yeah, heard it on the news. I am absolutely interested in docs about Croatia in 91', to see their "dirty little underwear".
Also I heard on news that Brasilian PM signed with my country (Serbia) agreement on military-technical colaboration. I think it's very useful for both of our nations...

[Massey]

In spirect of the US-SK games in the yellow sea.

I am hoping with our wise man and woman that are all on this site. We can make a list of all military games and what not. Make a list to see that yearly events and happens each year and where and with who.
Later on when we may have the list of games, we can see what the roles are for each games or what purpose. but thats getting ahead of myself.


Now on a other note:
If the NK does start a war (even that it never really stopped) what do you people think what will happen?
IMO: i dont think the USA has the ablility to do much in the early stages of the war. maybe just play a surportive role. (untill afgan is wrapped up. But I am also thinking China wont play apart unless these a huge push in to the North. But you have to think there has to be a push in to the north at same point, so is China doom to play a role in a Korra war? and on a other side note. what side will China back these days? because if the south take the north, china will have to be friends with its semi-new border neighour. On top of that, what if China did play a role for the south, will the SovietChinese aircraft carrier play apart? and what if China goes the other way and play a role for the north like they did in the past? This war (if it happens) brings up so many questions!

On WikiLeaks
I think it is funny that USA gov is always talking about open gov to other gov's but when it push back on to them.... they are like SHUTUP! I could say more on this but I will leave it there.

On The Favela Pacification Campaign
Woot! I now it sounds bad to some people to use the ARMY to deal with such isuess but IMO i think its a great idea. What stronger message can you say to drug dealers/surplyers and other memebers of such dealings then SEND IN THE TROOPS!

Massey semi-logging but hopping to look forward to making a list of yealy games
BYE!

[Raven]

If ever there in attack on NK I hardly believe it would be a full scale invasion. It would be a the typical US shock and awe strategy targeting military installations using the full US, SK air power and cruise missiles. The idea would be to force the NK gov to surrender or come to a negotiation. Once this starts, China will not play any other role I suppose. She does not have any interest in NK AFAIK apart from the fact that, China uses NK as bargaining tool.

China will not enter a war which they can't win outright , and moreover on something that consumes their resources for no plausible benefit.

[MARS]

If the NK does start a war (even that it never really stopped) what do you people think what will happen?
IMO: i dont think the USA has the ablility to do much in the early stages of the war. maybe just play a surportive role. (untill afgan is wrapped up. But I am also thinking China wont play apart unless these a huge push in to the North. But you have to think there has to be a push in to the north at same point, so is China doom to play a role in a Korra war? and on a other side note. what side will China back these days? because if the south take the north, china will have to be friends with its semi-new border neighour. On top of that, what if China did play a role for the south, will the SovietChinese aircraft carrier play apart? and what if China goes the other way and play a role for the north like they did in the past? This war (if it happens) brings up so many questions!

The US are still busy finishing up in Iraq and Afghanistan, so I doubt they'll respond with a full-blown invasion and occupation of North Korea. Should this conflict ever escalate into a new war, it'll be between the two Koreas with the South getting US support. This'd probably be a different story with a different US president, but I don't think Obama wants to get caught up in a new war, so the US will probably end up providing massive air support, reconnaisance, commando operations and logistical aid. China will probably stay out of this whole mess since they don't want to jeopardise their achievements of the last few years by siding with the North. Delusional as he is, Kim Jong Il still likes to pretend that great red China will come to his rescue but when the chips are down, Beijing will probably tell him to fuck off. They don't want that crazy nuclear troublemaker to play around in their backyard and destabilise the entire region. Technologically, the South has a clear advantage but they'll be up against the fourth largest army on the planet, one that's practically been conditioned into god-worshipping their leader and which, for the most part, will end up fighting on its own home soil after the inevitable failure of their own attack on the South. North Korean landscape is, from what I've gathered, very mountainous, favouring the defender, so it may still be a very costly victory for South Korea. The real interesting question is what will happen after the end of the Kim-regime. A unification of the two Koreas would leave the South chained to a dead body for decades, making the re-unification of Germany look like a complete and total success by comparison.

[Waris]

According to one of the cables, the general opinion in the CPC is that they wouldn't actually mind a unified Korea, as long as they don't have US troops right next to their border. A South Korean politician is quoted in there that it is possible that the North will collapse politically, since their economy has been utterly down the shitter for years now. There are also murmurs about the Kim dynasty succession "has not progressed as planned", thus the complete implosion of the Northern regime may happen sooner rather than later (according to the politician, 1-3 years after Kim Jong-Un takes over).

If the war really breaks over again, I can't imagine anything else happening to the North other than total destruction, as it is widely expected that if SK and US do not take preemptive steps at neutralizing the thousands of artillery guns pointing at Seoul, the North's best achievement (however morose that can sound) is to flatten Seoul and its surroundings... and for this you can expect a retribution of gargantuan proportion from the other side. I also read in a news that the South's PM, thru his aide, has asked for the US to station their tactical nukes in their country, either for deterrence or something far worse.

MARS also made a good point by comparing the Koreas unification with with that of Germany, and since a war will make rebuilding efforts much harder, it's easy to see why a complete implosion of the North is the best bet for all the parties concerned, except for the North of course. And now for the waiting game...

[partyzanPaulZy]

I wouldn't be surprised even if China went to North Korea, claiming them being their protectorate... to prevent establishment of new American military base and to protect their investments. All despite their support of the Stalinistic monarchy.

Nevertheless the Northkorean Army is pretty screwed like whole their country, they don't have even something so basic like enough fuel or food!

They can however destroy big portion of the Southkorean economy utilizing their artilleries and missiles against Seoul (which gives one reason for the South to attack first).

This post has been edited by partyzanPaulZy: 30 Nov 2010, 21:29

[Dangerman]

IIRC isn't there plans for a NK invasion for SK/US to use tactial nuclear weapons as not a last resort? Also i think China tried to stage coups within the NK government before.
Though in another confrintation (well saying another war is technically incorrect ) NK infantry isn't the problem (well a Rich Target environment as they all call it these days ), its the Artillery that is and most of it is likely shells which can't be countered by any defences except for hopes and a hard bunker...

This post has been edited by dangerman1337: 30 Nov 2010, 23:24

[Raven]

NK biggest asset is its large Special Forces reserve. As part of their training, they have to infiltrate the South and bring back a trophy, so a large no of them wreaking havoc in SK is a big concern for the SK. I'm talking about this NK Spec Ops from what I learned from an article way back, about 5 or 6 yrs ago, things maybe different now though.

[MARS]

Like I said earlier, they did a lot of things in the past that would usually result in massive retaliation: Killing half the SK government in Burma, coastal incursions and attempts to kick off a guerilla war within SK and, somewhat related, the DMZ tunnels. With that in mind, North Korea becomes a lot more threatening, especially if you factor in the possibility of them having actual nukes. Knowing their brutality and outright craziness, I wouldn't be too worried about their Nodong missiles. I'd worry about the bombs that might have been smuggled into the harbours of Seoul, Tokyo or even San Francisco by regular civilian boats long ago. Naturally, this would result in the nuclear annihilation of North Korea but Kim's last note in the history books will be a massive, traumatising display of power on par with Hiroshima/Nagasaki AND 911 rolled into one.

[Raven]

I'd worry about the bombs that might have been smuggled into the harbours of Seoul, Tokyo or even San Francisco by regular civilian boats long ago.

How likely is that? I don't they did that, certainly not into the US. If you are talking about suitcase nukes, I'd say that's an even more lesser threat. However, given the proximity to SK, they might do something similar in SK and possibly Japan but with conventional or dirty bombs but not nukes

[MARS]

I never said it was 'likely', but knowing their track record when it comes to using dirty tricks, it's certainly possible. And like you said yourself: If they can't use a nuke, they may still try causing some
major havoc with a dirty bomb. Not as much an iconic image for the history book as a mushroom cloud rising above the the charred ruins of downtown Seoul but a disturbing possibility nonetheless.
They may even avoid getting counter-attacked with actual nukes this way.

[Raven]

I just wanted to know the possibility of something like that happening.

Also this whole scenario reminds me of a novel called World War 3 by Humphrey Hawksley, who was a BBC journalist. It has a very believable story, where all the events start with the assassination of the Pakistan's president and an attack on Indian Parliament, followed by a regime change in NK.

[sheppe]

Eric L. Harry wrote several books (Protect and Defend, Invasion, and Arc Light) that are quite believable and (scarily) possible, and Invasion is almost identical to the NK/SK issue going on now.

Back on Topic, the Wiki-leaks website was apparently attacked by Chinese hackers on the orders of the Politburo, who condemned the releases (that China would probably not support NK if war occurred) and informed the American Government to pretty much get it's act together and stop letting stuff be leaked.
Also about Wiki-leaks, Sarah Palin ("we have to stand by our NORTH Korean allies") declared that the head of Wiki-leaks should be hunted down like Bin Laden (so... not very well!?], and Assage has today been declared Wanted by Interpol for the Rape of 2 women.

[MARS]

As much as I dislike Assange - he just comes off as a sleazy weasel to me - this is obviously a smear campaign coupled with what may very well be a made-up excuse to arrest him. It creates the illusion that this man isn't
being hunted for being a political enemy of the state but an actual criminal accused of a terrible crime. Plus, it comes with the added bonus of tainting his reputation thus undermining people's trust and willingness to believe him.

[Raven]

But the damage has already been done. The new documents released shows UK has allowed US to store cluster munitions on UK territory. These cables basically depict the bad side of most governments. US think that they have arrested the guy who leaked those info. It may not happen easily again the future, but the damage has been done. Some of these things are just confirmations of what has already been suspected before.

What's you personal opinion about those leaks? Is it justified, or is it plain to dangerous as US claim?

[MARS]

Some of both actually. On the one hand, I can sort of understand the US government saying that this may compromise and even endanger some of their informants, but on the other hand, it does cast a bad light on their own internal security protocols if these supposedly confidential cables are so badly secured that a mere PFC can steal hundreds of thousands of documents and smuggle them out on a Lady Gaga CD. Could anyone do the same with all the secret files regarding aliens and UFOs please? Now that'd be interesting. Most of the actual information revealed through those cables aren't too surprising for anyone who walks through life and the world with their eyes open and the US most definately ISN'T the only country witholding secret information from the public. It's just embarrassing that it just HAD to be the US who got all their foreign policy secrets exposed by some shady, self-righteous transparency movement. The only thing that strikes me as a bit uncomfortable is the bit about the 'near environmental disaster over a rogue shipment of enriched uranium'. I would like to know more on this.

[Waris]

What's you personal opinion about those leaks? Is it justified, or is it plain to dangerous as US claim?

[Raven]

Some of both actually. On the one hand, I can sort of understand the US government saying that this may compromise and even endanger some of their informants, but on the other hand, it does cast a bad light on their own internal security protocols if these supposedly confidential cables are so badly secured that a mere PFC can steal hundreds of thousands of documents and smuggle them out on a Lady Gaga CD. Could anyone do the same with all the secret files regarding aliens and UFOs please? Now that'd be interesting. Most of the actual information revealed through those cables aren't too surprising for anyone who walks through life and the world with their eyes open and the US most definately ISN'T the only country witholding secret information from the public. It's just embarrassing that it just HAD to be the US who got all their foreign policy secrets exposed by some shady, self-righteous transparency movement. The only thing that strikes me as a bit uncomfortable is the bit about the 'near environmental disaster over a rogue shipment of enriched uranium'. I would like to know more on this.

One things that clouds my mind over this is that most of these things are just confirmations of what we already knew or suspected. Although this whole things is a huge revelation, it will not have any lasting impact on the US or any of its allies other than giving anti-US/West bloggers and debaters ammunition. But what is more striking is the reveals about the views about the Russian govs links to the Mafia, the leaks related to Iran and so on. The conspiracy theorist on my mind tell me that this may be a planned leak by the US.

Does any of you guys think that is possible? I am not saying its actually what has happened, but I admit it crossed my mind, and as MARS says, the security should be ridiculously noobish for a PFC to steal these docs.

[Overdose]

Spread of misinformation is common tactic by intelligences around the world.

[Raven]

I found this very interesting article on Fox.