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Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 9 Feb 2013, 23:22

http://www.forbes.com/sites/singularity/2012/07/23/the-end-of-chinese-manufacturing-and-rebirth-of-u-s-industry/ What you see there is something we've never seen before.

No more manual labor. I don't even know how much this changes the economy.

Labor unions will lose their deathgrip on manufacturing.
New medical information.
Science.
And of course, china loses it's greatest advantage, It's cheap labor. Even now, stuff like Google has left china due to blatant IP theft (Intellectual Property). We could have a revolution like the Internet or Steam engine.
Heck, it could be something as epic as the invention of sliced bread.

Posted by: Generalcamo 10 Feb 2013, 6:09

Even if companies don't go now, they will go later, as China's one birth per person policy will begin to shrink the workforce soon.

Posted by: (USA)Bruce 10 Feb 2013, 16:01

This sounds like good news to me ;=)

I was quite annoyed that American flags were made in china....Yet chineese flags were made in america (Yes its true!)

Posted by: InsurgentCell 10 Feb 2013, 16:09

Our world works in odd ways....

Well... I guess the good olden days of every single thing being chinese is gone now

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 11 Feb 2013, 1:35

Sense: This world makes none.

Excuse me, I have a meme to cook up with woefully inadequate materials.

EDIT: Here we go

Posted by: CoLT 11 Feb 2013, 2:28

Just to clarify, for those who believe this is a good thing.
Losing China as a major base for materials processing and manufacturing will have many effects that we will all feel.

Firstly, China's long reputation of cheap labour will disappear. This means that as manufacturing shifts elsewhere, not only will production output drop, costs will rise dramatically as well. The main reason for this is the increased running costs of manufacturing plants. Workers in the western world will also demand higher pay. When this paradigm shifts, the labour unions will never allow the people to be paid less than what they currently are. So if the workers will be asked to do more work for the same pay, what do you think will happen? Once they go on strike, however, that's where the real problems start. Because once they strike, the output drops even more. Therefore, the supply of products reaching the retailer's shelves (Capitalism after all) will diminish. This will force retailers and suppliers to mark up their prices to compensate for the higher demand but lack of supply. Simple economics, really.

So expect to be paying double, if not triple, of what you are paying for things now.

Also, with China then holding all the economic power, and the US and EU running in to financial problems, what do you suppose will happen to the value of the major western currencies? After all, what happens to any economy once their country spends more than it earns? Depression, hyper-inflation, exorbitant price mark-ups are just some of many problems that everyone will face.


And the irony of it all? The one system that'll save you then. Communism. So all you 'mericuh lovers, can you see yourself living in the United Socialist States of America? Because I can, unless something is done to prevent this shift of power. But then, what can really be done about it now?

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 11 Feb 2013, 2:55

/headesk.

First off. The reason China's going kaput is becasue of the following

We wont need manual labor anymore.


China? one word

Sanctions for the mass human rights invasions that we've ignored because of the low prices they provide, but now no longer do.

Posted by: MARS 11 Feb 2013, 6:18

More robotics may help the West compete against cheap Chinese labour in the manufacturing sector, but it'd also be the last nail in the coffin of what's left of manual production jobs in the West if applied on a large scale.

Posted by: Alias 11 Feb 2013, 6:51

Something important to note is that while the manufacturing may move, China would still produce the vast majority of the raw materials used in manufacture.

Posted by: MARS 11 Feb 2013, 6:56

Good point. For one, they already control most of the world's rare earth materials.

Posted by: dangerman1337 11 Feb 2013, 8:42

IIRC the US itself has alot of rare earths but the infrastructure for it isn't there.

Posted by: Shock 11 Feb 2013, 14:01

Except that this policy is far from 100% effective and population momentum will keep their workforce growing for some time in the future.

Posted by: Maxner12 11 Feb 2013, 22:28

Actually I think it is possible to have more than one kid. Just they will congratulate you with huge taxes for that.
Also, we are talking about a nation with more than a 1 billion+ people. It will take a lot of time till it's workforce gets old.

Posted by: MARS 12 Feb 2013, 6:05

From what I've heard, the One Child policy also causes a number of other problems, namely that female children are often killed because people want a male heir to carry on their name.
As a result, there are more males than females which may become a reason for serious social tensions at some point.

Posted by: SorataZ 12 Feb 2013, 9:34

Not will, is. Already women are kidnapped and taken to homeland China to get forced into marriages. That's a major business.

As for the issue of non-producing China, prices are rising all the time so that's hardly an issue more important than... say, what is one of the most demanding tasks and costs lots of money? Oh right, SHIPMENT. Once products are produced in the same countries they are sold, shipment costs will fall down the floor. And we don't need robotic help in the future, we already use it to great effect.

Bottom line, it can only go better.

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 8 Mar 2013, 9:42

The best part is, china's own Intellectual property seems rather low-end. They're not really innvators as much as they copy other tech.

It's going to change, but the change is something on the scale of the industrial revolution.

It's not something easy to do, it'll take some time, and by then, they'll be left behind.

What i'm really afraid of is the fallout of their collapse.

Posted by: __CrUsHeR 8 Mar 2013, 11:33

You can only be kidding, China's GDP is steadily growing, the country has a solid economy (the second largest in the world), is rich in natural resources, dominates many technologies and has a external and internal market overheated and more recently surpassed the United States in the importation of petroleum. You have any idea what this means?

Posted by: Alias 8 Mar 2013, 11:56

It's quite funny how times change, for thousands of years technology shifted from the east to the west. One of the primary reasons that Chinese innovation was stifled was thanks to Western incursion in the 18th and 19th century.

As I've mentioned in another post elsewhere – as China continues to industrialise, they will continue to move towards through the same process that South Korea, Taiwan and Japan went through towards a middle-class society that relies on industry rather than purely on agriculture. Eventually after that they will be moving towards research and development, which they are already doing in certain areas such as solar energy.

I wouldn't be worried about the collapse of China – the continuing collapse of the US is a far greater, and far more worrying threat.

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 8 Mar 2013, 13:22

The problem is simple really. There's no real Intellectual property. Hence copying will be seen as more effective than reserach since it's cheaper.
And please, solar energy without using satelites (Not Solaris-style, the panels are on the satelite and the energy is microwave beamed to earth) is a dead end.

There's no real momentum for any research outside of propganda purposed. Without IP law (Copyrights). There is no incentive for new tech, which a competitor can copy for far less cost. They'll copy since others already research.
To change that takes alot of time. And personally, i'm not worried about the US collapsing unless people vote democrat to the very end. Sooner or later, someone will wisen up and stop all this pointless obamacare, lower taxes, and we have a real economic rebirth in the making.

Posted by: Alias 8 Mar 2013, 13:49

There are intellectual property rights, but they aren't particularly friendly to international companies (same with many other areas of Chinese law – it actually does take a lot of effort to set up shop in China, despite the low costs involved). It is more focussed on domestic problems, and considering they have the largest domestic market in the world that is not surprising. Copyright and licensing fees are only one type of motivation for innovation, the Chinese government does sponsor a fair amount of research – particularly in areas of national interest (energy sources and transportation being two major sectors). I did several months of work for a Chinese solar power company and I can tell you, there is definitely no shortage of competition for solar companies in China as they can fully integrate the whole process, from research and development straight through to production in a very efficient manner. You'd also be very surprised at the efficiency that solar is reaching, particularly in the solar strongholds of Germany and China. Wind technology is also getting better developed in China, with things such as frictionless turbines being developed in recent years which are far more efficient than any of the current technology.

It is a similar case in many other sectors, even those without government funding. The demand for such services and the lack of international companies filling them allows many locally Chinese companies be very successful in areas that other international companies would have a relative monopoly on in the rest of the world. While they may not be respecting international patent law, they are still definitely doing research, and it will only continue to grow as the economy becomes more advanced.

It won't matter who you vote for, the beast will die regardless of who pulls the arrow from the carcass. Lower taxes will hardly help anything at this stage, unfortunately America has fallen too far into the rabbit hole to avoid tax increases.

Again, just like the current Chinese situation, we can look to history for an idea of what will happen next. America's slow-but-sure downfall is very similar to that the British experienced post-Victoria and the Dutch experienced before them. America will definitely not fall off the map – and will surely remain a major player – but their time in the top spot has come to an end. There is only so much time that one can run at the top position.

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 8 Mar 2013, 15:32

You know what? I GIVE UP! I can't talk sense into you, YOU PLAY ALCHEMIST!
Jk Jk.

Anyhow, Wind and Solar are literally dead ends for two reason.
A: It's reliant on weather patterns
B: Weather patterns are never reliable.
C: Nuclear fusion is the way to go.

I've seen it, Nuclear fusion can change everything. We just need to get our hands on some moon mining tech and it's the next new fuel source.

We're talking about something big here, but i've gone off topic.

China's like the soviet union or Nazi Germany. They're unstable and about to collapse. There's this uneasy air around the place, it feels like it's all fake, all a show, all just people trying to make the most of it while they can.

I've been there. Trust me, there's no such thing as new technology there.

If they don't sneak out the debt, which no democrat will ever do, but a right-wing man just might. I'm looking at things right across the border, and it's none to pretty. Your government's shutting down oil pipelines right at the border and ignoring our shared history, all just to seem more peaceful with their enemies. It's called being naive about trust and hoping your friends won't leave you. Drop the chinese debt by sanctioning them from blatant IP theft (For the love of god, they just mistype a word in the company name and call it their own) and rampant human right abuse (Less obivous, but pretty much undeniable). You just have to wait until they try to take it back.

Stop listening to the unions, force them to either starve or shut up. It's unpopular, but it works. They just cause constant inflation and aggravate the market. Remove all the bullcrap about support dead-end green tech and focus on effective stuff like nuclear fusion and dams.

The Edwardian era ended in world war I and it sowed the seeds for World war II.
Lets just hope we avoid that.

Posted by: __CrUsHeR 8 Mar 2013, 16:25

It's like some scholars say: - The fall of the World Trade Center was symbolically the beginning of the end of Western Capitalism, (it's the end of the Contemporary Age and the beginning of something new), the economic crisis that followed has destabilized the economy of Europe and opened way for the ascent of emerging economies, the U.S. geopolitical influence in the world will endure however tends to decrease from this point forward, and Russia, China, Japan and others will gain a greater international space - the History teaches us that there is no empire that lasts for ever.

Posted by: Alias 8 Mar 2013, 16:30

While it is reliant on weather patterns, efficiency is increasing every year and new developments (especially things such as frictionless turbines) greatly reduce both the raw resource required to generate energy and the area required for construction and operation. The main problem with solar and wind currently is nothing to do with their reliability, it's all to do with the fact the current technology for storing energy is from fifty years ago. You can thank the Western-style patent system and predatory patent acquisition by oil and gas companies as to the relative lack of recent developments in that field. They sit on many patents that could revolutionise energy as we know it, however because it is economically damaging to their business they refuse to further develop the technology. This is why nations such as China, who aren't shackled to such a strict interpretation of the patent system, are actually developing technology in these areas far faster than other countries.

Fusion may be the way to go, but it is also many years away before it gets to positive production, let alone to the scale that would be required for any significant power production. Hydroelectric is very efficient, very cheap and produces a lot of power but there is only so many places that you can dam before you adversely affect the environment (particularly the crop producing environment) in extremely damaging ways.

Current China isn't really anything like the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany, in the Mao era - maybe - but ever since Deng, China has been performing far better, and has a far better record than either of those two countries did.

I'm definitely not saying that China is all sunshine and rainbows, very far from it infact – there are many deep cultural and political problems in the China of today that are in desperate need of fixing, however that will come with time, and the governments since Deng have been gradually more reformist.

China really isn't anywhere near collapse, I really don't know where you're getting that from.

"Your government"? I'm Australian, mate. Each of our main three political parties are further left than the American Democrats are, and out of all Western economies we are the ones who have been doing far better than average, without any recession.

Inflation, particularly in the case of the US, is caused far more by the fact that money is printed with disregard for the consequences. Both American parties are very guilty of this, and the extremely low tax rate definitely doesn't help either.

I'm sure as you grow older and actually end up working a proper full time job, you'll understand that having your taxes go into beneficial services is actually a very positive thing, both for the economy and for the general health and wellbeing of the populace.

Posted by: Serialkillerwhale 9 Mar 2013, 0:30

Helium-3 It's one neutron smaller than standard Earth helium.
It's found on the moon in far more than on the earth. We could be talking about grow even.

I'm refering to china as a country that's using nationalism and command economy to force ecnomic growth with rapid industrialization. There's a certain amount of time it needs for the process to work. In Shanghai I've seen people selling the same stuff as years ago on bicycle carts right next to a fast food joint.

It generally tends to forget some things. They've done well. But they're about to fall or at the very least, their economie's going down soon.



Oh and we Canadians avoided most of the recession. It's only Europe and the U.S that really got hit eh?

EDIT: Why is it only when we affirm our national identities do we say those stereotypical lines?

Posted by: SorataZ 9 Mar 2013, 10:34

Lay down your nationalist talk.

As for the Helium-3 issue, you have probably seen the movie "Moon" by now.

As for China, I doubt that an economy based on modern slave labour will survive changing times, no matter how many robots they employ. Keep in mind that robots doing jobs = no jobs for humans. This will eventually lead to a luddite movement and the only thing to prevent that is keeping the population dumb - something China excels at.

Posted by: TravisDoney 1 Apr 2014, 11:13

There is minuscule chance of collapse of China industry just due to easy and cheap availability of resources..US is huge trouble now..

Posted by: Thelord444 1 Apr 2014, 12:14

Am i the only one who think Nano are going to do a revolution in the near future?

Posted by: DarkyPwnz 1 Apr 2014, 21:04

Silly China, they should move on to zero-point energy and antimatter reactors.

Posted by: Generalcamo 2 Apr 2014, 0:36

Oh wow, this old thread.

Is this even relevant anymore?

Posted by: The General 3 Jun 2014, 13:35

Come on, this is just funny.

Posted by: NeverLose 5 Jul 2014, 16:23

I didn't see anything funny here.

Posted by: FloppySovereign 1 Aug 2014, 12:53

After reading all this I think that the the best energy source is Nuclear Fusion, and the best way to go for the helium-3 idea, is to leave it where it is. And it also pisses me off how much every country depends on cheap labor to keep economy decent, like Australia, we have the raw materials (iron ore, natural gas, shitty oil, tonnes of uranium) and we ship it ALL overseas to be processed, then we buy it ALL back, for triple the price. Funny thing is, no country is independent anymore, I think they should be, but then governments pull the 'international relations' thing, which isn't anything, all it is, is a ticket in and out of a country.



Moral of the story: The World is Corrupt.

Posted by: __CrUsHeR 1 Aug 2014, 13:49

The Brazil as well as Australia also holds large mineral reserves and other important natural resources, and here things are not too different. It is curious that in Brazil for example there is a 'monopoly of niobium' (98% of all reservations of this rare superconductor) and this strategic resource does not ensure the projection of Brazil as a superpower; if we invested more in the domestic market of the aerospace and electronics industry we would have a higher consumption potential that would bring greater competitiveness for the country, more jobs and a significant reduction in the final cost of electronics devices, would we do with the other countries to respect us more and our economy today could be at least the third or fourth largest in the world.

But as the old adage says: "who is born to be a wolf will always be a wolf, this is its true nature..." peoples, societys and countries are often treated as 'sheeps' in international relations as the 'wolves' predate on to live in abundance, this is the real moral of the story.